MANSFIELD — There was reason for hope after the 2017 Economic Forecast Breakfast at Mid-Ohio Convention Center Tuesday morning.
Karen Seman, director of workforce development at Richland County Community Development Group, said the lecture given by Rubén Hernández Murillo offered optimism for a region that has long been derided as the Rust Belt of America.
Murillo, Senior Policy Economist in External Outreach & Regional Analytics Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, spoke about gross domestic product and unemployment rates throughout region 4 — including all of Ohio, parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Labor Markets, he said, are healthy. In December of 2016, 156,000 jobs were created in the region. The Gross Domestic Product, a measure of the economic production of a particular territory in financial capital terms over a specific time, was measured at a median rate of 2.1.
Murillo said he calculated 2017’s GDP rate to fall below 1.8 and settle around that mark as well.
Indicators also tell him unemployment will continue to fall. He showed a dot density map displaying the number of jobs created in Richland County equaled more than jobs eliminated.
He said in the long run, though, the unemployment rate will settle around 5 percent because “eventually there is no way to lower unemployment.”
Murillo then noted a graph of lines declining at different slopes showing the unemployment rates. Cincinnati is currently at an unemployment rate of 4.2, Cleveland at 5.4. Ohio as a whole is at 4.9.
He then showed a new line — Mansfield — which began as the highest line during the recession and ended just below Cleveland at 5.3.
He showed a similar slide for job creation rate where Cincinnati was marked at 1.6, Columbus at 1.8. The state as a whole is at .9. He then showed the Mansfield line, which placed the community lower than the other cities in the region at -1.
“Mansfield still has a long way to go,” Murillo said. “The way job skills were used has changed. That does not mean robots will be doing all of our jobs. Jobs will be available for workers (in the future). Indirectly or directly manufacturing will be a source of employment.”
Seman said the graphs showed progress Mansfield and others in the area have made.
“The question is when you look at it is there any other way we could tag off of Columbus?” Seman asked. “Does Richland County see itself as a greater northern bedroom community of the Columbus area and turn on the housing socket we have here and below median housing values?”
After Murillo spoke, Jodie Perry, president of the Richland Area Chamber of Commerce, said the Chamber of Commerce, Richland County Development Group and Richland County Commissioners are working together to build a healthier business environment.
A survey the chamber completed suggested most area businesses had held steady or added jobs in the past year.
“There’s lots going on. (Richland County Commissioner) Marilyn John and I have been co-leading with RCDG to make the regulatory process more friendly for business, and we’ve done it,” Perry said. “The municipalities have done a lot of heavy lifting and we are starting to see the fruits of that labor.
“There’s still a long way to go, we all know that. But if we continue to work together, continue to try to look for efficiencies, our community will be better off for it.”
